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Humbo Ethiopia Assisted Natural Regeneration Project

Afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation (ARR) • Ethiopia

The Humbo Ethiopia Assisted Natural Regeneration Project established a biodiverse native forest that increased income and employment opportunities for local communities. The project restored predominantly indigenous tree species in the mountainous region of Southwestern Ethiopia, covering around 2,728 hectares of land.

The project protected the area with fencing and applied the Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) technique, significantly accelerating natural revegetation. This improved tree cover and tree height in the area. In addition, 50.7 hectares of land were planted with Eucalyptus globulus and Grevillea robusta plantations. Planting concluded in 2011, and live fences have been established around the project boundary.

Humbo Ethiopia has also established seven community cooperative societies that manage and own the site.

Why we love it

This project emphasizes reforestation with a high proportion of native species, ensuring additionality and high-quality carbon removal. It promotes the regrowth of native forests without the need for large-scale planting.

The project prioritizes biodiversity, sustainability, and community empowerment by providing income and facilitating the granting of land-rights to locals by the Ethiopian government. The long-term environmental and social benefits make this a highly impactful project.

Mai Bui

Director of climate science

at Supercritical

Key information

Vetting outcome
66
Good
Delivery risk
Low
Location
Ethiopia
Offset type
Afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation (ARR) Opens in a new tab
Permanence
20+ years Low
Registry
Gold Standard Opens in a new tab
Also bought by
-
Links
Project website Opens in a new tab

Co-benefits

Biodiversity

The project promotes the regeneration of predominantly native species, improving the health of the natural ecosystem and increasing biodiversity in the area.

Education and community

The project distributes 65% of the carbon revenue to community forestry cooperatives. These funds are shared amongst the local community and used for community development priorities such as roads, water improvement, and gully control.

Economic empowerment

The project has introduced a cut-and-carry scheme of grass fodder for local farmers. Sustainable harvesting of tree products provides an income stream for local workers, with more than 9,000 person-days of planting, weeding, and harvesting.

Sustainable development goals

Sustainable development goal 1 Sustainable development goal 2 Sustainable development goal 5 Sustainable development goal 6 Sustainable development goal 8 Sustainable development goal 17

Project location

Ethiopia

Vetting outcome

66
Overall

Our proprietary vetting protocol is underpinned by decades of climate science and commercial experience. Learn more.

64

Climate science

Humbo Ethiopia credits include carbon removed by the trees as well as soil carbon increases. The project is registered on Gold Standard, which is well respected and requires a 20% buffer to cover the risk of reversal and non-permanence. Amongst other things, increased sampling and an increased contractual permanence could improve the score.
69

Removal mechanism risk

Removal only
Score: 100

The project achieved the maximum score by counting only removals from assisted natural restoration and tree planting.

Land cover prior
Score: 50

Before the project, the land consisted of exposed bare ground and degraded forest with less than 20% tree cover. A Participatory Rural Appraisal concluded that there had been a progression of land degradation between 1970 and 1985. Aerial photos and testimony from village leaders confirmed that the project sites had been without vegetation since 31 December 1989. This evidence has been reviewed and validated by a third-party verifier.

Trees confirmed
Score: 50

Our analysis of satellite imagery and forest carbon data (from Planet, Chloris, and Global Forest Watch) produced conflicting results. Some showed forest carbon gains, and others indicated declines, making the satellite evidence inconclusive. The Humbo project has been monitoring and measuring carbon removals up to 2021. The monitoring and verification reports provide sufficient evidence that the project is removing carbon.

Albedo, evapotranspiration and other non-ghg climate effects
Score: 75

Recent maps published by Natalia Hasler et al. (2024) suggest that reforestation of the project area is likely to have minimal warming offsetting from changes in albedo. Local cooling is also observed when tropical areas are reforested.

70

Permanence

Contractual permanence of project
Score: 50

The contractual permanence is 30 years – the same as the project length – ending in 2036. This is shorter than many similar projects.

Regulatory protection
Score: 50

Under by-laws produced, the communities are granted full-use rights for the project area. According to the SNNPRS Proclamation No. 110/2007, possessory rights allow peasants and pastoralists to use rural land for agriculture or natural resource development, giving the community the freedom to decide on land cover.

Socio-economic pressures
Score: 75

As part of the project, World Vision Ethiopia demonstrated the benefits of healthy forests to local communities, showing how forests can provide sustainable fuel and fodder. This successfully shifted the area’s use from unsustainable exploitation to more sustainable practices. In 2015, the government built a road at the community’s request. This reduced the project area by 4.07 hectares, resulting in an estimated carbon stock loss of 823 tCO2e — less than 1% of the project’s total projected carbon sequestration. This loss was accounted for in the calculation in the subsequent verification cycle.

Natural hazard risk
Score: 75

According to the World Bank risk tool, the Wolayita area is considered at high risk of wildfires. However, Global Forest Watch data shows minimal tree cover loss from fires between 2001 and 2023, and the Global Fire Weather Index currently rates the wildfire risk as very low.The project developers have a fire management plan in place, including fire breaks and regular patrols to mitigate fire risks. The World Bank risk tool shows a medium level of risk for flooding but a low risk of drought and storms. Flash flooding it not perceived to have significant impact on the success of the project. By improving the health and diversity of native trees, the damage due to pests and pathogens is considered low. The World Bank assesses landslides and earthquakes as a medium risk to the project area.

Correct buffer pools
Score: 100

Gold Standard requires a fixed 20% contribution for a pooled compliance buffer, which, unlike other standards, remains untouched even after the crediting period of the project. This further reduces the risk of reversal and non-permanence.

50

Crediting accuracy

Correct baseline
Score: 50

According to Global Forest Watch data, the Southern region of Ethiopia experienced a net tree cover loss of 208 thousand hectares (kha) (-5.6%) between 2000 and 2020. The project assumes a baseline of zero carbon removals due, justifying this with the persistent anthropogenic pressures that prevent natural regeneration. To address these pressures, the developers introduced Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration techniques. Supercritical recommends using a dynamic baseline method to further validate the lack of natural regeneration without the project. Given the historical degradation of the area, these persistent anthropogenic pressures would likely continue without the project.

Conservative allometric equations
Score: 50

For the natural regeneration strata, a single generalized equation is used for all trees. This equation is not region-specific, but a general formula for tropical forests. This allometric equation is widely used within the industry and appropriately applied. The project is demonstrably keeping up-to-date with the latest scientific literature on allometrics. It uses separate allometric equations for the Grevillea and Eucalyptus plantations, and will update them if a newer relevant equation provides a more conservative greenhouse gas (GHG) estimation.

50

Credit calculation accuracy

Soil organic carbon contribution
Score: 50

The project incorporates the increase of soil organic carbon in credit calculations. This carbon source has a higher measurement uncertainty compared to tree carbon. During the most recent monitoring period, a Validation and Verification Body (VBB) measured and independently upheld these calculations, with 22% of credits from the 2018–2021 vintages derived from soil organic carbon.

63

Additionality

Policy & regulatory requirements
Score: 50

Ethiopia has implemented ambitious tree-planting initiatives, notably the Green Legacy Initiative (GLI) launched in 2019. This initiative aims to plant billions of trees to combat environmental degradation and climate change. This program mobilized millions of people across the country to plant trees on various lands, including local communities in community-owned areas. While the GLI has led to significant tree-planting efforts across the country, it operates on a voluntary basis, with no explicit legal requirement mandating that community-owned land be planted with trees.

Common practice
Score: 50

Tree planting is not a common practice, though it may occur on a limited scale in surrounding areas. Across Ethiopia, tree planting programs are limited and typically linked to agroforestry and reforestation. None are active near the project area. Through the Ethiopian Government's Green Legacy Initiative (GLI), billions of trees have been planted nationwide. This makes it reasonable to expect some tree-planting activity in nearby communities, though natural regeneration on community-owned land at this scale remains rare in Ethiopia. From 2000 to 2020, Ethiopia experienced a net tree cover loss of 738 kha (-3.6%), offset slightly by 404 kha of forest gain. In the Wolayita Zone, 954 hectares (ha) of tree cover were lost from 2001 to 2023, representing an 8.8% decrease since 2000.

Financial additionality
Score: 100

The project was initiated due to charitable funding from World Vision Australia, but it relies on carbon credit sales to sustain and operate. At the program level, carbon credits are the sole revenue source. The local communities maintain the rights for the sale of any other product, such as timber from the naturalized plantation.

Prior consideration
Score: 50

Although initially funded by charitable funding from World Vision Australia, this project was one of the first developed for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It later transitioned to become solely a Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) project with approval from the local government.

75

Leakage

Market leakage, activity displacement
Score: 75

The project displaces some pre-existing uses. Notably, baseline assessments identified 3,998 ruminant animals (oxen, bulls, cows, and goats) on-site before the project. By providing the community access to harvested grass, the project replaces grazing with collected fodder. Due to this system of grass harvesting, the project developers calculate that the project area can support more ruminants than were originally present, thus leakage can be assumed to be zero. The project monitors parameters related to the displacement of pre-project grazing, fuel-food collection activities, and increased consumption of wood. While these factors present potential risks, monitoring has confirmed no leakage.

75

Registry and MRV

Registry
Score: 100

Humbo Ethiopia is registered on Gold Standard, which has a good reputation.

Sampling strategy - stratified random sampling
Score: 50

A total of 85 sample plots for the project activity are established using a systematic random grid, covering approximately 0.1% of the total project area. Based on on-site quality, these plots are divided into five separate strata. Plot tree and shrub measurements are converted to dry weight biomass through allometric equations, and the data is then amalgamated by strata. The independent verification of calculations from a sample of these plots found negligible deviations in measurements, confirming the sampling process is acceptable.

78

Delivery risk

Humbo Ethiopia has been operating since 2004 and has a solid track record of issuing carbon credits. A comprehensive fire safety plan is in place, and the project developers maintain good relationships with the local community. Supercritical is not aware of any significant complaints about the project. The charity World Vision runs the project, which provides financial security. While the charity has received some negative press over the years, it is not directly linked to World Vision Ethiopia.
83

Operations

Site development
Score: 100
Registry status
Score: 100

Humbo Ethiopia is registered on Gold Standard, which has a good reputation. The project has recently issued credits in October 2024, which are ex-post.

Site operations
Score: 67
Natural Disasters
Score: 100

Global Forest Watch data shows no tree cover loss from fire in the project area between 2001 and 2023, and the Global Fire Weather Index indicates the current risk is at the lowest level. Burn index datasets from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 also show little evidence of any fires in the project area from 2015 to 2024. There is no history of uncontrolled fires at this site. However, as the project progresses and tree numbers increase, the risk of fire also grows. To address this, Humbo Ethiopia has implemented a comprehensive fire management plan, which includes fire prevention training, the provision of firefighting equipment, and an annual risk assessment.

Site Ownership & Leases
Score: 50

By law, the national and regional governments classify the project area as designated community holdings, which grants cooperative members user rights. The seven forestry cooperatives have been issued land user rights certificates as proof of these rural land use rights. Living fences, typically made of sisal, and dry stone bunds, mark the project boundary adjacent to agricultural land, villages, and individual holdings.

Labour
Score: 50

Humbo Ethiopia provided evidence of informed consent for the project through community engagement workshops, as verified by independent assessors. No significant complaints have been raised against the project.

75

Project lead

Insolvency & abandonment
Score: 75

Humbo Ethiopia issued credits in 2020 for vintages from 2009 to 2017. In 2022, it was reported that this generated $612,813 for the project. In October 2024, the project issued credits for vintages from 2018-2021, totaling over 130,000 credits. While we have not received a financial model showing definitive financial stability, the recent issuance and the revenue from previous credits suggest that the risk of delivery due to insolvency is low.

Fraud
Score: 50

World Vision Ethiopia operates the project, with World Vision Australia as the developer. World Vision International, a charity with over 70 years of experience and a turnover of $1.5 billion annually, operates in more than 100 countries. There have been a small number of troubling stories about the charity. In 2016, the program director of the Gaza office was accused of and later charged with diverting money to terrorist organizations. This is challenged by World Vision, the UN Commission for Human Rights, and Amnesty International, who all urge the Israeli government to overturn their decision. World Vision was also named in stories related to sexual abuse in Haiti and the Democratic Republic of Congo alongside other charities. It denies the claims. There have been some accusations of corruption against World Vision Australia. However, an independent investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing, and issues related to underpaying staff have been resolved. No allegations of wrongdoing have been made against World Vision Ethiopia. The project passes anti-money laundering (AML), sanctions, and politically exposed person (PEP) checks. While these stories are troubling, it is our view that they do not affect the integrity of the Humbo Ethiopia project.

Team experience
Score: 100
Track Record
Score: 100

Over 100k credits have been retired from this project.

75

Country risk

Sector risk
Score: 50

Ethiopia has not experienced a moratorium on nature-based carbon credits. However, Nature-based Solution (NBS) carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects remain limited in the country, partly due to recent conflicts in the North. While there are no specific policies encouraging NBS carbon credits, the recent listing of a new Ethiopian NBS project on VERRA suggests that the policy environment is not hostile either. Ethiopia is reported to have played an active role in the Africa Multi-Stakeholder Conference on Carbon Markets (African Union). In October 2024, leaders of BRICS countries, including Ethiopia, pledged to collaborate on carbon markets. Although there are promising signs of support, Ethiopia has yet to implement explicit policies or regulations to encourage NBS carbon credits.

Institutional / political instability
Score: 100

The project developer is World Vision Australia. To assess the country's risk, we reference the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) to understand fraud risk due to weak institutions in the project developer’s country. Australia has a CPI score of 75, which is among the best in the world.

65

Environmental impact

The project has improved the health of the natural ecosystem, helping to restore biodiversity, reduce soil erosion, and improve flood protection and water security. Species monitoring within the natural regeneration area is currently lacking, though plans to introduce this in the short term are in the pipeline.
50

Air

The project developers have provided no evidence to suggest significant risks or co-benefits related to air quality.

58

Biodiversity

The project primarily focuses on natural regeneration, promoting native species for supplemental planting. Although we have not seen the exact list of 87 species, data from verifiers and independent academic studies of the project area suggest that native species likely dominate. Screening for invasive species found no evidence of their presence within the project area. However, the project does include non-native plantations of the naturalized Eucalyptus and Grevillea. Bird surveys conducted in the project areas since 2013 show that more than 100 bird species now use the forest as a habitat. While multiple threatened and endangered species may benefit from the natural regeneration, the project does not monitor their population trends. Located near Loka Abaya National Park and surrounded by other patches of natural forest, the project may serve as an important "stepping stone" corridor for native flora and fauna.

75

Soil

The increased root material stabilizing the soils is likely to reduce soil loss. However, the project does not track soil-related metrics and only provides qualitative evidence of the benefits to soils.

75

Water

There are no permanent water bodies in the project area. However, the quantity of subsurface water is likely to increase due to the enhanced water-holding capacity of the soil, and reduced sediment loads may have a small positive impact on water quality in Lake Abaya. The project does not track water-related metrics and provides only qualitative evidence of benefits to water provision.

56

Social impact

The project provides a stable income for the community for planting, weeding, and harvesting. The communities own land use rights on the site, and the benefits of the project are being shared amongst them, including investments into community developments. Supercritical is yet to see strong evidence of social indicators being tracked and reasonable targets being met.
61

Economic empowerment

65% of the carbon revenue paid to the supplier is distributed to community forestry cooperatives. These communities invest these funds into sustainable development plans, such as road maintenance, grain store construction, and access to credit services to further agricultural development. The introduction of a cut-and-carry system for grass harvesting, alongside sustainable harvesting of wood products, allows for additional economic opportunities. The project includes metrics to track employment generated and the percentage of women in management positions, with targets either met or on track to be met.

58

Education & community

Although the proposed VCM project activity will be implemented within the World Vision Humbo Area Development Program (ADP), it is unclear how the project itself will explicitly bring educational benefits to the community. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) methods were used to consult with farmer households in the project areas. These consultations revealed that most communities wanted the project land to remain undivided, with benefits shared among all members and used for community development priorities.

50

Health

The project activities do not pose a health risk to local residents. While improving health and well-being is not a primary goal of the project, reduced landslide risk and benefits from carbon credit revenue may improve local health and well-being. However, Supercritical has not seen direct evidence that the project activities benefit local health and well-being.

Availability & Pricing

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